Footnotes to Plato from the foothills of the Superstition Mountains

Trump, Nukes, and Nation-Building

It is blindingly evident that Ayatollah Khamenei and the rest of the  radical Islamists in control of Iran must not be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons. Donald Trump has been clear and consistent about this during the ten years he has been in the political spotlight.  He may speak of diplomacy and agreements but he understands that a piece of of paper will not deter such savages. 

Unlike the feckless and demented Joe Biden, Trump has excellent threat-assessment skills. He understands that the greatest threat to humanity is not 'white supremacy' or 'climate change,' but nuclear war. And unlike his impotent predecessors Obama and Biden, he knows better than to make idle threats. He gave Khamenei 60 days. On the 61st all hell broke loose.

So what DJT has to do is supply the Israelis with the bunker buster bombs and delivery systems (B-2s) to annihilate  the infrastructure needed to develop the nukes. [Corrigendum 6/19: I am assuming, probably falsely, that the USA can simply supply the Israelis with the bunker-busting GBU-57s and the B-2s so that the IDF can do the job.]

But there is dissension in the MAGA ranks. I wonder if Tucker Carlson is aware of the distinction between preventing the present Iranian regime from acquiring nukes and forcing the Iranians to adopt a Western form of government. I am for the first, against the second. The Iranians have the right to any government of their choosing, including an Islamic theocracy as long as it does not support such  terrorist surrogates and proxies as  Hamas and Hezbollah, and as along as it does not develop nuclear weapons.

As my respect for Carlson goes down, my assessment of Fetterman goes up. Funny world. 

The Neo-Con mistake was to think that we can teach the peoples of the Middle East how to live by invasion, occupation, and nation-building. Utter folly.  But that is not what Trump is about.  Preventing Khamenei and his gang from acquiring nukes is entirely consistent with Trump's non-interventionist  foreign policy.  [On second thought, a great power such as the USA cannot be purely non-interventionist if it is to succeed in protecting its own interests. Here non-interventionism meets its limit. In the present emergency, an exception must be made: the USA must intervene to prevent the rogue state from acquiring nukes. The preceding sentence smacks of Schmitt: I am currently immersed, critically of course, in his works.] 

"The Romans, foreseeing troubles, dealt with them at once, and, even to avoid a war, would not let them come to a head, for they knew that war is not to be avoided, but is only put off to the advantage of others." (— Nicolo Machiavelli, in "The Prince.")

Applying Machiavelli's point to the present: War to the death cannot be avoided with Khamenei's Iran. So let's get it it over with. Khamenei is stalling; he thinks he can survive the current Israeli onslaught, develop his nukes, and fight later.  (This is essentially General Jack Keane's analysis. Sounds right to me!) So what DJT has to do is supply the Israelis with the bunker buster bombs and delivery systems (B-2s) to annihilate  the infrastructure needed to develop the nukes. [Not right. See my first corrigendum supra.] This may  ignite a popular uprising against the clerical thugs, which could only be good. Trump and Netanyahu have made it clear that the Iranian people are not the enemy.

Addendum 6/19. What I wrote above leaves something to be desired: political theory is not my wheelhouse. It takes a bloody long time to "study everything" as my masthead motto recommends. See the comment thread and in particular the linked articles for a nuanced overview of the entire geopolitical shit-scape.  

Comments

48 responses to “Trump, Nukes, and Nation-Building”

  1. Vito B. Caiati Avatar
    Vito B. Caiati

    I agree, Bill, as long as we restrict our intervention to the elimination of the Iranian nuclear sites that Israel, which possesses only 2,000- and 5,000-pound penetrator bombs, cannot destroy, since the attack requires the use of the 30, 000-pound GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP). A weapon that has the ability to penetrate to a depth of 200 feet before exploding. This is not a situation that requires any sort of ground incursion or occupation. Take out the sites and declare the operation over.
    A small correction: this weapon it is not carried by the B-52 but rather by the B-2 Spirit stealth bomber, which is armed with two of these MOPs in its internal bomb bay. The B-52 has the power to transport the bomb and has been used as a test platform for it, but it is not certified to deliver it in combat.
    Vito

  2. BV Avatar
    BV

    Thanks for the correction, Vito. I head Fetterman say “B-2” and I assumed that the Neanderthal got it wrong. My opinion of that boy keeps going up. But if he’s the best the Dems have to offer, they’re screwed.
    So I assume you would not want the Israelis to destroy the gas-driven electrical grid or destroy the refineries or assassinate Khamenei.

  3. Vito B. Caiati Avatar
    Vito B. Caiati

    No, I would not want to impose unnecessary suffering on the Iranian people or engage in regime change–just eliminate the nuclear threat.

  4. Joe Odegaard Avatar

    Iran is the Persia of old, and the Persians were great poets and architects. Rumi and Omar Khayyam were both Persian poets.
    The names of their architects I do not know, but here is a link to what they have done :
    https://www.jeffcotner.com/2017/11/18/isfahan/
    I am certain that all the power to produce this beauty is still there in the continuity of the people or ancient Persia, and may we see them set free to create again, and soon.
    My favorite Architecture history professor traveled to Isfahan in the early 1970s and brought back many colored slides; now you could never go there from the West and photograph to your heart’s content like he did. And let’s hope those beautiful domes all survive.

  5. Joe Odegaard Avatar

    Northrop B-2 specifications.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northrop_B-2_Spirit
    We have only 19 of them at the moment. I did not realize they could carry such a huge load. They are flying wings, stable only due to computer-operated control surfaces. Flying wings are tricky to control in pitch.

  6. Miloš M. Avatar
    Miloš M.

    The situation is, nevertheless, somewhat more complex; the United States cannot “lend” Israel B-2 strategic bombers and the corresponding bunker-busting bombs. If such attacks need to be carried out, they must be conducted by the U.S. Air Force. However, there remains concern about asymmetric Iranian actions: what if a salvo of ballistic missiles is launched toward Saudi refineries or power plants, airports in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, or tankers in the Persian Gulf? Would the United States embark on a prolonged campaign to prevent such attacks, or would it encourage the collapse of the regime by supporting internal dissenters?

  7. BV Avatar
    BV

    Joe,
    An early form of chess was developed in Persia, Shatranj. http://history.chess.free.fr/shatranj.htm
    Could a B-2 be transported on an aircraft carrier?
    Could an Israeli pilot drive a B-2 and do the dirty work?

  8. BV Avatar
    BV

    Milos just answered my question.
    Astute comments, Milos. Within MAGA ranks there is now a nasty debate going on as to whether the USA could be sucked into a wider war if the things you suggest come to pass.
    One thing is clear: Iran under the current regime must be stopped from acquiring nuclear weapons. Israel could do the job with tactical nukes, no? But that option is highly unappetizing.
    Trump is the toughest man on the planet. He bears the weight of the world on his shoulders. Yet he seems as cool as a cucumber. May he make the right choice. We are reduced to praying.

  9. BV Avatar
    BV

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/18/ted-cruz-tucker-carlson-iran
    The internal MAGA split.
    Political aporetics in the concrete. On the one hand, we cannot impose sanity and reason on Muslim savages, and it would be wonderful if we could be wholly non-interventionist and leave them to their devices. On the other hand, we cannot — given that one of their devices is a nuclear bomb.
    The problem appears to be insoluble.
    One can see how “final solutions” can be proposed. Of course I am not proposing one. I am a mere aporetician. I am merely trying to understand the problem in its full complexity.
    Getting back to Shatranj, mandkind’s endgame may be nigh, a curious endgame in which both sides suffer checkmate.

  10. BV Avatar
    BV

    Here is a very good article that answers many of he questions we are asking:
    https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/israel-end-iran-nuclear-program-david-albright

  11. Joe Odegaard Avatar

    Hi Brother Bill
    Well re the B-2, my opinion as a man who is technically literate, and who follows aviation, and whose family has had military pilots, is this:
    1. A carrier could transport a B-2 as deck cargo, but it is a huge aircraft with a wingspan of more than 170 feet (go outside and pace that off ! ) so there is no way that a carrier will catapult launch one, and
    2. It probably takes scads of training to learn to fly one, so if a B-2 drops bunker busters on the caverns of the centrifuges, the pilot and crew will be USAF. Maybe we have a Jewish pilot in the USAF.
    Anyway, the Iranian fanatics (as opposed to the regular people, or so I hope) have long chanted “Death to America !” , so it is only logical and prudent for America to hit them.
    Also, the B-2 can aerial re-fuel, and fly round trip from the USA to Iran and back.

  12. Vito B. Caiati Avatar
    Vito B. Caiati

    Bill,
    It seems to me that the article, which you quite rightly recommend, leaves little doubt that Fordow has to be made inoperable, one way or another. The use of force is something that the president, who detests war, earnestly sought to avoid, but, as usual, the Iranian regime played games, all the time advancing its nuclear program. In the end, it comes down to the question of evaluating the dangers of permitting a second brutal dictatorship, the first being North Korea, to posses nuclear weapons. In the case of Iran, the danger would be even greater, since (1) the restraining influence of China, which has no desire to be dragged into a nuclear conflict by Kim Jong-un, would not be part of the equation, and (2) it has shown itself much more aggressive in its export and support of terrorist acts, which could potentially include those employing means of mass destruction.
    Vito

  13. Vito B. Caiati Avatar
    Vito B. Caiati

    Joe Odegaard,
    Six B-2s, along with four B-52s, were flown to Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean this spring. If an attack on Fordow was ordered by the president, the bombers would take off from there and fly 3,200 miles to Fordow, which is less than half the B-2s range (6,897 miles); however, KC-135 Stratotankers are also on the island to provide inflight refueling, if necessary (in the case of an initial drop of a MOP or MOPS, circling to evaluate the damage, and then a second or more drops for deeper penetration).
    Vito

  14. BV Avatar
    BV

    And here is a Federalist piece that will give you a deeper insight into the internal debate raging within the MAGA movement: https://thefederalist.com/2025/06/18/discredited-neocon-talking-points-from-the-iraq-war-are-back-lazily-re-purposed-for-iran/
    >>Remember how we would be “greeted as liberators” in Iraq? That was Vice President Dick Cheney’s line. Turns out the Iranians are also waiting to be liberated and will greet western militaries with open arms! After all, God has planted in every heart the desire to live in freedom, right? According to Mark Levin, who is old enough to know better, isolationists “stand in the way of Trump and Netanyahu transforming the Middle East” — as if transforming the Middle East is both a feasible and desirable thing for the United States to do.<< Did you hear Levin's rant last night, Vito?

  15. Vito B. Caiati Avatar
    Vito B. Caiati

    No, Bill, I did not hear Levin last night, but I know that he is involved in a very nasty fight with Tucker Carlson.
    I read the Federalist article to which you linked, and first, it seems absurd for Davidson to draw an equivalence between the highly dubious evidence about supposed weapons of mass destruction that the Bush administration employed to justify the Iraq War with the abundance of evidence for Iranian plans to develop an Atomic bomb. I asked the Grok to summarize this evidence, and this is what the AI came up with:
    “The evidence for Iran’s nuclear plans primarily comes from reports by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), open-source intelligence, historical data, and statements from Iranian officials. Below is a concise summary of the key evidence, focusing on the most reliable and recent sources available as of June 18, 2025:
    IAEA Reports and Inspections:
    Uranium Enrichment: The IAEA has documented Iran’s ongoing uranium enrichment activities, particularly at the Natanz and Fordow facilities. As of recent reports, Iran possesses a stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% U-235, which is close to the 90% threshold considered weapons-grade. The IAEA’s May 31, 2025, report noted that Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile is sufficient, if further enriched, to produce multiple nuclear warheads, though no direct evidence of weaponization exists currently.
    Non-Compliance with Safeguards: The IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution on June 12, 2025, citing Iran’s failure to provide credible explanations for uranium traces found at undeclared sites, indicating possible past or ongoing undeclared nuclear activities. This lack of transparency violates Iran’s obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
    Facility Developments: Following military strikes on June 13, 2025, Iran announced plans to construct a new uranium enrichment facility and install advanced sixth-generation centrifuges at Fordow, as reported by the IAEA’s Incident and Emergency Centre (IEC). These actions suggest an intent to expand enrichment capacity, potentially in response to international pressure.
    Historical Evidence (AMAD Project):
    The IAEA has confirmed that Iran operated a covert nuclear weapons program, known as the AMAD Project, until it was officially halted in 2003. Documents obtained by Israel in 2018 and shared with the IAEA provide evidence of Iran’s past efforts to develop nuclear weapons, including warhead design and uranium metallurgy. While no active weapons program is confirmed post-2003, the IAEA remains concerned about Iran’s retention of related technical knowledge.
    Iranian Official Statements:
    Iranian officials have publicly acknowledged expanding their nuclear program, particularly after the IAEA’s June 2025 censure. For example, statements reported on X and in media outlets indicate Iran’s intent to increase centrifuge numbers and enrichment levels as a countermeasure to international sanctions and military actions. These statements align with IAEA observations of new centrifuge installations at Fordow.
    Open-Source Intelligence and Satellite Imagery:
    Satellite imagery and open-source reports, as noted in recent posts on X, have tracked construction and activity at Iranian nuclear sites like Natanz and Fordow. Damage to Natanz’s Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant from the June 13, 2025, strikes was corroborated by imagery showing destruction of above-ground facilities. These sources also indicate Iran’s efforts to rebuild and fortify nuclear infrastructure, suggesting continued investment in nuclear capabilities.
    Undeclared Sites and Activities:
    The IAEA has repeatedly raised concerns about uranium traces found at undeclared locations, such as Turquzabad and Varamin, which Iran has failed to adequately explain. These findings, detailed in IAEA reports, suggest possible covert nuclear activities or material storage, raising suspicions about Iran’s intentions.”
    Second, the president has stated several times, and Davidson must know this, that he is only interested in the issue of the bomb and not at all in regime change. As you point out in your post, the two issues should not be confused.
    Vito

  16. Joe Odegaard Avatar

    The liberators might be the long-suffering women of Iran, as this video shows:
    https://x.com/realMaalouf/status/1935182415124660459

  17. BV Avatar
    BV

    VDH lays out the problem with admirable clarity. But what should Trump do, Victor? Hanson the careful scholar, the professional historian, will not say.

  18. BV Avatar
    BV

    A dissenting voice from Responsible Statecraft:
    >>Like all things in the Middle East, the U.S.–Israeli war on Iran can seem complicated. It’s not. The unprovoked Israeli attack on Iran is the 2003 Iraq War 2.0, except it has the potential to be far, far more catastrophic than the absolute catastrophe that was Iraq.
    Like President George W. Bush’s 2003 war on Iraq, the war on Iran is an unprovoked, illegal, offensive, unilateral war of aggression, potentially aimed at regime change, and sold to the public based on lies about nonexistent weapons of mass destruction.
    Just as the administration of Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney lied about a bogus threat of Iraqi “mushroom clouds,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is lying about a nuclear threat from an Iran that has no nuclear weapons and was in negotiations to avoid getting them.<< https://responsiblestatecraft.org/iran-israel-war-2672380464/
    To a guy like me it is the fact of disagreement itself (its causes, effects, nature, etc.) rather than any particular disagreement about any particular topic that interests me most.

  19. Joe Odegaard Avatar

    The folks at “Responsible Statecraft” need to study history to see that Hitler should have been stopped at Munich, as Clememza well knows, and states, in this scene from “The Godfather:”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5wdH1JGmPn8

  20. Vito B. Caiati Avatar
    Vito B. Caiati

    Bill,
    No ally, no matter how close, would be given either the B-2 Bomber, which possesses the most advanced stealth technology in the world. As for the GBU-57A/B MOP, also an engineering marvel and great military asset, Israel has in the past requested this bomb and has been refused. Given the scientific ability of the Israeli’s–for instance, their recent modifications of the F-35 (the only nation permitted to make these) has rendered the fighter-bomber much more capable in terms of range and intelligence gathering–so they might be able to strap one of these MOPs to a F-15 EX, whose payload (29,000 pounds) falls just short of the GBU-57A/B weight (30,000), but it will not be supplied to them.
    Small correction: We must not confuse a MOAB, such as the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast (11 tons of TNT), which is designed to be used on above ground targets, killing and destroying everything over a wide area, with a MOP that is designed to take out deep hardened targets.
    Vito

  21. BV Avatar
    BV

    Vito,
    Agreed. I was confusing the MOAB with the MOP. Thank you for helping me conduct my education in public.
    The claim made at Responsible Statecraft that the current Israeli response to Iran is “unprovoked” is refuted by the 7 October 2023 attack on Israelis by an Iranian proxy.
    Agree?

  22. Vito B. Caiati Avatar
    Vito B. Caiati

    Bill,
    I agree completely.

  23. Joe Odegaard Avatar

    The way I see it , Tump, and by extension we Americans, have a moral duty to destroy the mountain-buried centrifuges.

  24. Anthony Flood Avatar

    Where was Mossad, what were their miracle-working spooks doing, on October 7th?

  25. BV Avatar
    BV

    Fair question, Tony. Or are you suggesting that October 7th was a false flag operation?

  26. BV Avatar
    BV

    Now I remember, Tony. You think 9/11 was an ‘inside job.’ So I’m guessing you really think the same about 10/7. In fact, you subscribe to a whole bunch of conspiracy theories. I’ve noticed that this is a pattern among conspiracy theorists: they typically buy ’em all.
    Probabilities, when multiplied, approach zero. That’s not an exact way of putting it, but I am at the end of my work day. So if event e1 has probability .5, and e2 probability .4, then the probability of both occurring is .2. And so on.
    In simple terms, the likelihood of all your conspiracy theories being either true or well-founded is less than the probability of any one of them being either true or well-founded. The more theories, the less collective well-founded-ness. Your anti-authoritarian, anarchist, “ideological script” might be driving your conspiratorial mindset.
    Don’t take it personally, Tony. Nietzsche was right when he said that every philosophy is its author’s Selbsterkenntnis, self-knowledge. That applies to all of us, and is probably at the root of ineluctable disagreement.

  27. Joe Odegaard Avatar

    As an architect, I can tell you that the “Twin-tower controlled demolition theories,” are complete nonsense.
    But reality is not good enough for some people.

  28. Anthony Flood Avatar

    It’s still a fair question, Bill. I used to subscribe to David Ray Griffin’s process theology as well as his 9/11 theories. I just don’t think about them anymore. Guessing about my thought process is a dodge, and it’s hard not to take your condescending psychologizing (e.g., my Selbsterkenntnis) personally, as though you’ve solved a problem by knowing what box to put me it. I’ll discount it, however, because, as you say, you’re at the end of your work day. We’re where we are today because, inter alia, the security forces of ueber-security-conscious Israel—the size of New Jersey, we’re constantly told—took two hours to respond to the incursion of the Iran-financed Hamas fiends. Egypt’s warning was shrugged off. (Could Egypt have invaded Israel with impunity?) Israel’s redundant security measures are legendary. At the airport, for example, you’re surveilled on the sidewalk, not after you’re inside the building. So given the high stakes the world faces in the aftermath of 10/7, I feel justified in repeating my fair question.

  29. Dmitri Avatar
    Dmitri

    Anthony
    >Where was Mossad, what were their miracle-working spooks doing, on October 7th?
    What happened on Oct 7, 2023 was not in their scope. Mossad is like CIA and then there is Shin-Bet or Shabak who are like FBI in terms of division of labour. And then there is Military Intelligence whose chief resigned already and admitted a series of huge mistakes of his. The last was that he was on vacation and his people woke him up at night but he decided to go back to bed.
    There is an ongoing investigation of the systemic screw-up that led to Oct 7 massacre. One thing is clear: Israel’s power structures would not slaughter > 1200 of their own. Conspiracy theories that say otherwise are either ideology driven loonies or paid up by Qatar and similar. Carlson is not there yet, but Qatari funds are strongly influencing his mouth.

  30. BV Avatar
    BV

    Well-informed comment, Dmitri, but do you have evidence that >> Qatari funds are strongly influencing his [Tucker Carlson’s] mouth<< ?

  31. Anthony Flood Avatar

    Thanks, Dmitri, but when Wittgenstein said about religious belief that, “For a blunder, that is too big”–that such belief doesn’t rest on a simple mistake or a misunderstanding of grammar–he wasn’t suggesting that there was a conspiracy on the part of the “blunderers.” Stipulating that there is no good reason to believe that Israel’s power structures would conspire to permit the events of October 7th to unfold if they were foreknown, I’m left with the closest thing to a surd that I can imagine. The most fiendish assault on Jewish persons since the Holocaust is too demonic to be a systematic screw-up, given everything we think we know about Israel’s security. Or it’s explicable as a Machiavellian qui bono? calculation in the light of Israel’s current control of Iranian airspace. I’ve proven nothing, of course, but we seem to be forced to choose between a conspiracy and a surd. For a qualified defense of “conspiracy theories,” I offer a not-half-bad essay of mine from five years ago: https://anthonygflood.com/2020/08/conspiracy-theorist-our-eras-red-baiter-complementary-warnings-from-diana-west-and-murray-rothbard/

  32. Anthony Flood Avatar

    My insufficiently caffeinated brain caused me to type qui bono when I obviously meant cui bono.

  33. Vito B. Caiati Avatar
    Vito B. Caiati

    Anthony Flood,
    Is it true that we “we seem to be forced to choose between a conspiracy and a surd”? Now, I suppose that, if in retrospect, we look at, for instance, the failure of the armed forces of the United States to check the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, we might come to the conclusion that only a conspiracy or some irrationality could explain it. But on closer inspection, it is best explained as an instance in which the American authorities of the time, political and military, acting on imperfect and conflicting intelligence, an underestimation of Japan’s military abilities, overconfidence, and the successful secret deployment of the of the latter’s naval forces (centered on the Kido Butai of six fleet carriers), arrived at a reasonable, although incorrect, assessment of the situation. * Moreover, history provides other historical instances of this type of perceptual and evaluative failure to foresee the imminence of some disaster, as, for instance, the disastrous initial Soviet evaluation and reaction to the German invasion of June, 1941, which stemmed from Stalin’s miscalculations and blindness, skepticism about intelligence reports, and fear of provoking Germany; or the French high commands decision to ignore specific but incomplete reports of German armor movements through the Ardennes in May 1940, at the weakest point in the French line, and continue the advance of the main army group (Army Group 1 under Billotte) into Belgium. Again, in both these instances, the haze that so often covers immediate events, when conjoined with the weaknesses of human cognition, befuddled by false assumptions and emotion, led rational actors down wrong paths. The terrible events of October 7 appear very likely to one more member of this set.
    *The veracity of this claim is supported by the definitive historical studies of the Pearl Harbor attack: For example, Roberta Wohlstetter, Pearl Harbor Warning and Decision (1. imprecision of the intelligence gathered by American codebreakers; 2 its misinterpretation [attack on Philippines or S.E. Asia, not Hawaii]; 3. bureaucratic failure to share it with commanders in Hawaii); Gordon W. Prange, At Dawn We Slept (1. Secret movement of the Kido Butai, with U.S. assuming still close to Japan; 2. smug dismissal of radar detection of aircraft and ship detection of submarines on December 7); Henry C. Claussen and Bruce Lee, Pearl Habor: Final Judgement (1. No evidence of suppressed warnings; 2. Crucial Japanese messages decoded too late).

  34. Dmitri Avatar
    Dmitri

    Bill re Carlson/Qatar: here are a few sources:
    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/investigations/3414894/conservative-media-targeted-qatari-foreign-influence-operations/
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/laura-loomer-tucker-carlson-maga-qatar-b2773366.html
    Anthony I’ll read your article, thanks. You have sent me to the dictionary with “surd”, but I think I get what you meant. One of the theories discussed in Israeli press is that there was an act of treason in the military structures. Another, much more popular, is that there was a systemic screw up similar to the one that enabled Arab countries to surprise Golda Meir and her government and generals in the beginning of 1973 Yom Kippur war.

  35. Anthony Flood Avatar

    Joe Odegaard, as an architect and fan of Bill’s, you’re not, I’m sure, arguing “No true architect claims controlled demolition brought down the Twin Towers.” You might be right, but I need more than hand-waving away what Architects & Engineers for 9/11 Truth (and others) have argued. I’d love to watch a debate, but such things never happen because each side has exiled the other beyond the pale of rational discourse. Claims and counterclaims made within a fraught political climate wherein everyone knows on which side their bread is buttered are hard (but not impossible) to adjudicate. Why? Because one wrong move can be career-ending. There’s little downside to charging Richard Gage with spouting complete nonsense, is there?

  36. Anthony Flood Avatar

    Vito, thank you for the bibliographical information. Your words seem imply, “No, Tony, Pearl Harbor was not too big to be a blunder.” We may know that there were/are vested interests in embroiling the U.S. in a war, but we may not factor in the possibility of conspiracy to further those interests when seeking accountability for the “blunder” and its bloody consequences. We must be content to focus on a narrow field of evidence, e.g., do the gloves fit? The wider context evaporates, leaving the jury only one question: did the prosecution prove its case against the government (FDR’s, Bush’s) beyond a reasonable doubt? The books you’ve adduced and summarized for me imply a negative answer. But even if I were to read them and evaluate every review of them, that wider context would still weigh heavily on my mind. Thanks for the challenging historical considerations.

  37. BV Avatar
    BV

    Joe and Tony,
    As I recall from an earlier thread, months ago, you two simply traded gratuitous assertions. Tony the NYC guy, having witnessed controlled demolitions of tall buildings, claimed to be able to just see that the Trade Towers came down by controlled demolition.
    That’s like saying with Paul at Romans 1:18-20 that one can just see that the world is a divine creation.
    Please forgive the snark, Tony, but are you a Trade Tower presuppositionalist?
    And please note that it was no “dodge” when I brought up your psychological makeup when I adduced your endorsing of a number of conspiracy theories. We agree that arguments stand and fall on their own merits, but if I have shown that an argument is not probative, then I am within my epistemic rights in inquiring into the psychological determinants of the arguer’s commitment to his conclusion.
    But to explain this properly requires a separate article.

  38. Anthony Flood Avatar

    I look forward to it, Bill.
    I agree with you about the right to inquire into the psychological determinants of my belief, but in a discussion among friends, it comes across as socially tone-deaf. Trained psychologists have learned (since at least 1964) not to diagnose without clinical examination US presidents they don’t like.
    It reminds me of Kai Nielsen’s speculation, à la Feuerbach and Marx, that since there are (allegedly) no good reasons to affirm God’s existence, we’re within our epistemic rights to root theistic belief in a psychological deficiency that afflicts every member of the class of theists, e.g., “alienation” from man’s true nature.
    To answer your question, no, I’m not a Trade Tower presuppositionalist, but rather, as you know, a biblical presuppositionalist. That means I believe that, carried along by the Holy Spirit (2 Peter 1:21), Paul declared infallibly at Romans 1:18-20, that regardless of what you’re willing or unwilling to profess, you know God exists by the things that are made. In other words, Paul exercised his apostolic right to “psychologize” you. (:^D) I understand if those on the receiving end of such a psych eval cordially reject that diagnosis. What they must do, however, is show how the worldview they presuppose makes sense of their sense-making. I wrote a little book on that topic: https://www.amazon.com/Philosophy-after-Christ-Thinking-Thoughts/dp/B0B426P7SY

  39. Vito B. Caiati Avatar
    Vito B. Caiati

    Anthony,
    Thank you for your response. I would just say that what you term “the narrow field of evidence” is, in fact, a large and highly diverse mass of documents, the record of the thinking and actions of the political and military actors of the time. These have been meticulously picked over by historians and other interested parties, biased for or against FDR and his administration, and have, after eight decades, yielded no evidence of conspiracy. When you write that “the wider context would still weigh heavily on my mind,” you apparently wish to express the idea that the desire of FDR and others to participate actively in the war, both against Germany and an expansionist Japan, continued to face strong domestic opposition in 1941 and that only an act of open aggression by one of the Axis powers, such as the Pearl Harbor attack, would reverse public opinion. I suppose that a certain sort of logic is at work here, namely, (1) FDR wanted to enter the war, (2) the American public had to be persuaded, (3) an act of Axis aggression would do the trick, (4) the December 7th attack was undetected and unopposed, (5) thus a conspiracy by the American leadership allowed it to happen. If someone thinks this and is presented with all the existing evidence that counts against it and still not convinced, the historian is stymied. We are all entitled to our beliefs, but to judge a belief to be rational one is obligated to produce arguments or evidence that supports it.
    Vito

  40. Joe Odegaard Avatar

    The WTC towers fell when the light gage floor joists in the fires lost their connections to the heavy exterior columns, which became, in effect, three times as slender, and so they buckled out of the way according to Euler’s formula:
    F = n π2 E I / L2
    Q.E.D.

  41. BV Avatar
    BV

    Vito,
    Shouldn’t your (7) read: (4) “the December 7th attack was detected but unopposed”?
    As for your “yielded no evidence of conspiracy” would not it be better to say that the evidence for is outweighed by the evidence against? After all, there is some evidence for, no?
    But you are the historian and I defer to your authority. (I have not examined the matter in any depth.) Would you grant that the conclusion that you and your colleagues have arrived at, namely, that the preponderance of evidence does not support the conspiracy claim, is not known with objective certainty to be true?
    Do you see the point I am making against Tony? Would you grant that, once historians have arrived at their conclusion of no conspiracy by the careful and objective examination of the evidence, that you would be entitled to (within your epistemic rights to) inquire into the psychological factors that incline people like Tony to assert a conspiracy?

  42. Joe Odegaard Avatar

    Euler’s formula didn’t format really well in my post above, so please note that pi is squared, as is the length of the column, L; so if two floors fail to laterally brace an exterior column, its effective length triples, and its compressive strength is one-ninth as much as before.
    Down it all goes.
    Joe Odegaard, architect.

  43. Vito B. Caiati Avatar
    Vito B. Caiati

    Bill,
    The precise plan to strike Pearl Harbor in early December 1941 was not detected, so I would hold to my original wording. Since the Japanese JN-25 code was not fully broken until April 1942, just before the Battle of Midway, American cryptanalysts, working in Hawaii and in Washington, knew that Japan was preparing for some sort of military action, but where and when it would take place remained unknown, with the Philippines or South East Asia being judged the most likely targets. Likewise, Japanese espionage at Pearl Harbor had been detected, but since it was the principal American naval base in the Pacific, such activity would have been expected. This and the other facts that I mentioned in my citation of sources indicate serious lapses in judgement, errors, overconfidence, but no evidence of a conspiracy. So, I would say that the attack was “undetected and unopposed,” with the latter adjective referring to the absence of preventive military action on the part of the U.S.
    “As for your “yielded no evidence of conspiracy” would not it be better to say that the evidence for is outweighed by the evidence against? After all, there is some evidence for, no?” I would say that no evidence of a conspiracy has been uncovered.
    Is this claim that can be known with “objective certainty”? Given the preponderance of evidence, I would answer in affirmative. Of course, as with all things historical, we make our judgements based on the evidence that we have at hand; sometimes, as when dealing with distant events, this evidence is very fragmentary and partial, and in such cases, only approximations of the past can be proposed. This is not the case with the events of 1941, both before, on, and after December 7th.
    Finally, I see the merit of your point with regard to psychological factors in cases where people continue “assert a conspiracy” when “the careful and objective examination of the evidence” does not support this conclusion. I reacted this way earlier this year in the heated exchange with the Holocaust denier Doran.
    Vito

  44. Anthony Flood Avatar

    Joe, thanks for the math tip, but I can’t follow it. As I said, I’d like to see where the point has been debated, if it has. (Did Tower 7 fall in sympathy with Towers 1 and 2? Or is there a formula for that as well?) My passions on this have cooled and migrated, but Bill did not forget where they once were. You may have the last word in this mini-thread of ours, if you wish. Thanks for the stimulating exchange.
    Vito, you summarized my suspicions accurately. If Bill thinks I’m stubbornly “asserting” a conspiracy even after my academic betters have spoken, he’s mistaken. I’m asserting the power of the political contexts within which scholarly evidence-weighing takes place. The honest historian need not be stymied by the persistent questions of nobodies: nothing hangs on my failure to give full-throated assent. Again, you may have the last word if you wish. The cyberarchaeologists of the future will have a grand old time with this overlong thread.

  45. BV Avatar
    BV

    Tony says to Vito: >>I’m asserting the power of the political contexts within which scholarly evidence-weighing takes place.<< I say to Tony: if you can appreciate the power of political contexts to affect, bias, influence, perhaps distort evidence-gathering and evidence-weighing, then you should also be open to the notion that psychological factors may help explain why certain people arrive at certain conclusions. Some people argue that ID requirements at polling places disenfranchise black votes because blacks do not have ID. Now that is a transparently worthless argument because of the manifest falsity of the premise. No doubt you agree. Given that the argument is provably non-probative, do I not have the right to inquire into the psychological determinants of the belief of those who embrace the conclusion?

  46. Anthony Flood Avatar

    Yes, Bill, of course you do. And I have the corresponding right to ask about how you exercise it and your qualifications for evaluating my “psychological determinants,” an objectifying exercise I would not perform on a friend. Tony

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