Long-time contributor Dave Gudeman coins the term 'antifactual' and then asks:
So, what are the truth conditions of an antifactual such as
(A) While the tree in my yard boasts 17,243 leaves at time t, it could have boasted 17,244 leaves at time t.
Here are some candidates:
(1) if the history of the tree had been different then …
(2) if the laws of physics had been different then …
(3) there exists a set of propositions S that were true at times before t such that, had each member of S been false, then given the truth of the various laws of physics and biology, an omniscient being could infer [could have inferred] that the number of leaves would be 17,244 at time t.
(4) there exists a set of propositions S that were true at times before t such that, had each member of S been false, then given the truth of the various laws of physics and biology, I can infer [could have inferred] by my normal power of reasoning and prediction that the number of leaves would be 17,244 at time t.
The problem with all of these candidates is that I don't think you can really know that any of them is true, but Peter, Bill et al. seem to be committed to the proposition that humans can know the truth of antifactuals. I can't come up with anything that humans could know the truth of short of the fact that (A) is not ruled out by mathematics or logic. But I've already discussed the problems with that interpretation. [In the portion of Dave's comments that I haven't quoted.] So that's what I mean when I say that I suspect that antifactuals, when used in a philosophical sense as Peter, Bill, et al use them are incoherent. I cannot figure out what the truth conditions of such propositions are. I can come up with several candidates, but none of them seems to be consistent with the usage and with what Peter, Bill, et al have said about modal propositions.
Dave's thesis is that proposition (A) above and relevantly similar propositions are "incoherent." I think we can safely ignore Dave's qualification, "when used in a philosophical sense as Peter, Bill, et al. use them." For Peter and I are using formulations like (A) in the same way any person would. There is nothing particularly 'philosophical' about a sentence like (A); the philosophy starts when we inquire into the logic, the epistemology, and the metaphysical presuppositions (if any) of a sentence like (A). Please note that ordinary people make modal claims. Although it is not likely that an ordinary hombre would assert (A), one can easily imagine an ordinary guy saying to his wife, "It would have been nice had the stream crossed our property." Or, "What a beautiful shade tree! Had it grown up closer to the house, it would have provided us with more blessed shade in this infernal desert!" What would be extraordinary and rather strange would be if the wife said, "How the hell do you know that the stream could have crossed our property?," or "You're assuming that the tree could have grown up closer to the house; but it didn't, so how do you know that it is really possible? How can you know what's possible apart from what's actual?" In this little exchange — which betrays differences that later led to divorce — the man stands on the firm ground of Ordinary Language; it is his virago of a wife who waxes philosophical.
But Dave says that (A) is "incoherent." Dave is using this term idiosyncratically to mean that the truth-conditions of (A) cannot be known to obtain. Consider candidate (1). If the history of the tree had been different, if, for example, a certain bird hadn't bit off a certain leaf that it did bite off, then the tree would have had one more leaf than it it actually has. The italicized sentence strikes me as obviously true. If Dave denies that it is true, then we don't have a basis for further discussion; for then he is denying what I take to be a DATUM, a given, something obviously the case.
Dave's problem, though, seems to be an epistemological one: how do we know that it is possible that the bird that bit off the leaf not have bitten off the leaf? That is an interesting question, but it really has nothing to do with the coherence of (A) if we use 'coherence' non-idiosyncratically. For surely (A) is true. Dave admits as much when he asks for the truth-conditions of (A). (One cannot ask for the truth conditions of a proposition that is not true; so Dave's asking for truth-conditions presupposes the sentence's being true.) Now given that (A) is true, it is meaningful. So (A) can't be incoherent in the sense of meaningless. Nor is (A) incoherent in the sense of logically self-contradictory. Does the truth of (A) contradict some well-known fact? No. There is just no clear sense in which (A) is incoherent.
We must distinguish three questions with respect to (A). Is it true? Is it known to be true? HOW is it known to be true? (How is it possible for anyone to know a proposition like (A) given that it is about an unrealized possibility?) I answer the first two questions in the affirmative. But I have no answer to the third question. But my inability to explain HOW I know something that I know does not entail that I do not know it!
Now is Dave saying that no one knows that propositions like (A) are true? Or is he saying that no one knows HOW propositions like (A) are known to be true? If Dave is saying the first thing, then I simply disagree. People know things like (A). If people never know things like (A), then the onus probandi is on Dave to prove it. If, on the other hand, Dave is saying that no one knows how we have modal knowledge, then I agree. But that is quite distinct from saying that (A) is "incoherent" or not known to be true. It is obviously coherent and (less obviously) known to be true.
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